Techno-economic modeling · for founders who want numbers, not vibes

Know if your ingredient idea is a business before you spend $50K finding out it isn't.

Custom techno-economic models for CPG and supplement founders. Built around your ingredient, your volumes, and your channel — so the answer is yours, not a template's.

Book a 20-min call See the David case study
15 years· 100+ projects· MSc Biochemistry· Nootropics· Functional gummies· Botanical extraction· Vegan formulations· 15 years· 100+ projects· MSc Biochemistry· Nootropics· Functional gummies·
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The pattern I keep seeing

Most founders make their biggest financial decisions on vibes gut feel. By the time the real numbers show up, $30K to $100K is already gone.

— And it's almost always the same three or four mistakes.

Case study · 01

The chia processor who didn't know which product would actually make money.

Situation

A chia processing company sitting on large volumes of raw material. The founder knew chia was hot. He didn't know which product direction — oil, protein isolate, fiber, or snack ingredient — would actually be profitable at his scale.

What I built

A live unit-economics model across three product directions at three production scales. Real cost inputs. Real channel margins. Real breakeven volumes. Every assumption was his to challenge.

Outcome

Protein won. We could see exactly why on the same page — and what would have killed the margin on the other directions. He's executing on it now, with the model still on his desk.

0 Product directions modeled
0 Production scales tested
0 Avoided on a wrong bet
0 Clear answer on the page
tea-model · chia.xlsx
DirectionCOGS / kgMargin %Breakeven
Oil$4.2011%—
Fiber$2.8024%High
Protein ✓$6.1041%Reachable
Snack ing.$3.4019%Risky
Illustrative. Real client model uses live cost inputs.

Live demo · play with a working model

I built a public protein formulator to show how these tools work.

Same engine, different scope. Try it before we talk.

Open the live tool

See it in motion

Two of the calculators I've built. Real outputs, not mockups.

Short walkthroughs of working tools — the kind of artifact you walk away with after we work together.

Example · 01

Vegan Protein Production Financial Calculator

A unit-economics model for plant-protein production. Plug in raw-material cost, process yields, and scale — and see COGS per kilo, breakeven volume, and margin shift live as you change inputs. Built for founders weighing whether to commit to a specific extraction line.

Example · 02

Protein Beverage Formulation Calculator

A formulation-cost model for protein beverages. Pick the protein source, sweetener, and stabilizer system — the model returns per-serving cost, label-claim feasibility, and the trade-offs between options on the same page. So you can defend the formula to a co-man without a chemist in the room.

What you actually get

A tool you own. Not a slide deck.

01

A live model, yours forever

Google Sheets or Excel. Every formula visible. Built around your ingredient, your volumes, your channels. Change an input — watch every downstream number move.

02

A 60-minute walkthrough call

I explain every assumption. You challenge them. We adjust on the call. By the end, you can defend the model to a co-founder, an investor, or a co-man rep.

03

Two weeks of follow-up

You'll think of new scenarios after the call. Send them over. We refine. The model only matters if it answers the question you're actually deciding on.

Who this is for

An honest filter, both ways.

A fit if you're…

  • A CPG, supplement, or nootropics founder at $1M+ revenue or capital.
  • Making a real decision in the next 60–90 days — co-man trial, SKU launch, new ingredient bet.
  • Tired of vibes-based pricing and want numbers you can defend.
  • Previously burned by a co-man quote, MOQ surprise, or a launch that didn't pencil out.
  • Willing to share real data so the model means something.

Probably not, if…

  • You're pre-revenue with a generic business plan and no operator experience.
  • You're shopping for the cheapest spreadsheet on the market.
  • You want a model to validate a decision you've already made emotionally.
  • You can't share supplier quotes, channel margins, or volume estimates.
  • You need a formulator, not a strategist. (I can refer you to good ones.)
Portrait of Andrés Arrocha

About

I'm Andrés Arrocha — biochemist by training, operator by necessity, model-builder by habit.

Biochemical Engineer with an MSc in Biochemistry and published research. Fifteen years across 100+ projects in supplements, nootropics, cosmetics, and food. I've worked on women's herbal formulations, functional beverages, extraction optimization, and regulatory claims.

I also run a small herbal business myself, which means I've felt every margin squeeze, MOQ surprise, and ingredient-quote shock that founders bring to me. The models I build aren't academic — they're shaped by what actually goes wrong.

The work I do day-to-day looks like a fractional Chief Science Officer: evaluating formulators, gut-checking claims, vetting ingredients. The techno-economic model is the artifact that holds all of that judgment in one place — so you can make a decision instead of a guess.

15 Years in industry
100+ Projects shipped
MSc Biochemistry
CPG Operator myself

Next step

Tell me the decision you're making. I'll tell you if a model would help.

Twenty minutes. No pitch. If it's not a fit, I'll say so on the call.

Book a 20-min call

Currently taking on 2–3 new founders per month.